Erdoğan, Netanyahu, and Trump: Who Will Become the New Strongman of the Middle East?

The Middle East has always been a region of shifting alliances, strategic ambitions, and towering egos. Leaders come and go, but every so often, a figure emerges with the ambition to cast their shadow across the sands of history—a strongman, unapologetic in their quest for dominance. Today, three names stand at the crossroads of ambition and opportunity: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the ever-present spectre of Donald Trump. Each man represents not just political might, but a distinct worldview vying for regional, if not global, supremacy.

The Ottoman Dream Reimagined: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political playbook has long been a cocktail of pragmatism, populism, and nostalgia. He is a man deeply immersed in Turkey’s imperial past, and his ambitions appear clear: a modern-day resurrection of Ottoman influence. While the world debates his questionable domestic policies—inflation ravaging the Turkish economy, suppression of media freedoms—Erdoğan remains undeterred on the international stage.

Syria has been his chosen theatre. Turkey’s support for Islamist factions such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has drawn a clear line in the sand. Toppling Assad isn’t just a power play; it’s a strategic domino that serves Erdoğan’s dual purposes: weakening the Kurdish factions that Ankara views as existential threats and solidifying Turkey’s role as the arbiter of Sunni Islamist power.

The strongman trope, however, has a glaring flaw: Erdoğan’s alliances aren’t universally admired. The Gulf monarchies view Turkey’s Islamist ties with suspicion, while Arab publics, still wary of a reimagined Ottoman Empire, remain largely unconvinced. Domestically, his swagger masks fragility. Turkey’s economic woes and its dependence on external actors, particularly in the energy markets, cast long shadows over his expansive dreams.

Netanyahu’s Gambit: Borders, Legacy, and the Greater Israel

On the other side of the region, Benjamin Netanyahu stands as a paradox: embattled yet emboldened, weakened at home but resolute on the world stage. Few leaders have turned adversity into opportunity with such political finesse. October’s attacks by Hamas dealt a severe blow to Netanyahu’s leadership. Yet, in his eyes, a moment of crisis can be a clarion call for expansion.

Netanyahu’s recent remarks likening current events to the Sykes-Picot Agreement—the infamous 1916 carving of the Ottoman Empire—are not idle musings. Israel, he suggests, can redraw the map, perhaps permanently annexing parts of Gaza, consolidating control over the West Bank, and neutralising Syrian threats. Israel’s military might has rarely been more potent, demonstrated by its multi-front capabilities in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Add to this the tacit support of a sympathetic Trumpian America—a potential encore of formal backing—and Netanyahu’s vision of a Greater Israel appears less fantastical.

Yet like Erdoğan, Netanyahu’s dreams face limits. Israel, for all its power, is small and surrounded by neighbours whose support remains, at best, transactional. More critically, Netanyahu’s domestic standing is tenuous. The corruption trials hang over him like a sword of Damocles, and public faith in his leadership is fractured. Like all strongmen, he knows his window of opportunity is finite, and he acts with the urgency of a man whose legacy remains unwritten.

Enter the Wildcard: Donald Trump

The spectre of Donald Trump looms large. No man has divided global opinion—or shaken geopolitical norms—quite like him. With Trump’s return to office, his influence in the Middle East is undeniable. From brokering the Abraham Accords to his unapologetic alignment with Netanyahu’s Israel, Trump has repositioned America’s role in the region. Where previous administrations wavered on diplomatic ambiguity, Trump wielded blunt force diplomacy.

For Erdoğan, Trump’s potential resurgence could spell either opportunity or chaos. A less engaged America might embolden Turkey’s expansionist goals, but an unpredictable Trump—unconstrained by convention—could also shift alliances on a whim.

For Netanyahu, Trump remains the ultimate ally. Few relationships in modern politics have been so symbiotic. Netanyahu gave Trump political wins, and Trump returned the favour, from moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem to supporting Israeli annexation plans. With Trump return, Netanyahu’s gambit for regional dominance may find its missing piece.

The New Middle East: Unsettled, Unpredictable, Unfinished

The question remains: who among these leaders will emerge as the definitive strongman? Erdoğan has ambition but lacks economic might. Netanyahu has military power but is dogged by domestic instability. Trump is the wildcard—a man who could tilt the balance of power or upend it entirely.

Yet, perhaps the real power brokers lie elsewhere. The Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—wield financial influence that no military strongman can match. While Erdoğan and Netanyahu jostle for position, Riyadh’s steady hand may ultimately shape the Middle East’s future.

For now, we are watching a game of survival—a clash of egos, ambitions, and ideologies. The new strongman of the Middle East may not be crowned by conquest but by pragmatism. 

And as history tells us, the sands of power shift faster than any leader can anticipate.